Happy Sunday everyone, and welcome to a new week of Media Create sales! We’re looking at another lean week, with the heaviest hitter topping out at just over 20K. We’re still in that pre-holiday lull, so I’m not overly concerned yet. Still, I’ll be keeping a close eye on the overall trends as we get closer to November.
This week, titles on Nintendo hardware managed to claim twelve spots on the big board, with eight Switch games and four 3DS titles making the cut.
At the front of the pack, we saw vampires squaring off against werewolves and… wait. Those were just Splatfest costumes! Splatoon 2 (Switch) held second place this period, with 19,622 units sold (1,232,523 LTD). The title currently enjoys a 66.15% attach rate, meaning that fully two out of every three Switch consoles has a copy of Splatoon 2 to go with it. More important, though, is that these squids are showing incredible legs, as sales continue to hover around that 20K sweet spot week after week. We should see the title crack 1.25 million next week, and I’m still expecting Splatoon 2 to be one of those “must-haves” through the holiday season. Expect sales to ramp up as we get closer to the winter buying season.
Not far behind, racing fans made their way to Mt. Wario for another round of Mario Kart. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Switch) took third place this period, with 13,321 units sold (747,454 LTD). We should see this one crack the 750K milestone next period, and there’s a very real possibility that we’ll see it reach a million by 2018. At its current trajectory, with about 13,000 copies sold per week, we’d be looking at a million in 19 weeks. Realistically, we will probably see sales start to dip outside the holidays, when spending in general slows down for a good month or two. Still, the title is performing well, and should continue to do well through Christmas. There’s potential for a Mario Odyssey (Ya See!) bump, but I’m not going to calculate that into my predictions, as this could be illusory.
Seriously, though. That (former) plumber gets around! Mario & Luigi: Superstar Saga + Bowser’s Minions (3DS) wasn’t far behind Mario Kart 8, taking fourth place with 12,215 sales (38,003 LTD). Again, this is super low for a Mario game, remake or not. And, while it will likely hit the 50K mark, I expect more than a few eyes at the big N are looking to the west to save Superstar Saga + Bowser’s Minions. As of now, the title hasn’t sold through its initial shipment – Famitsu pegged the title at about 40-60% sell-through in its initial week. This left anywhere between 18,000 and 37,500 unsold copies in the retail channel at the time. looking at this week’s sales, we still have somewhere between 5,785 and 25,285 copies of the game out in the wild. If there’s any positive to be gleaned, it’s the fact that we did see just 53% decline in week-2, which is low for an RPG in general. Moreover, there’s still potential for a bump, as 1-Up Boys and Girls to pick up Mario Odyssey. But, like with Mario Kart, I won’t be calculating this into my prediction as there’s a 50-50 chance of this happening to an appreciable level.
A bit further back, we can see a pretty big crowd is still gathered at the Pokémon stadium. Pokken Tournament DX (Switch) thundershocked its way to fifth place this period, pushing 8,367 units into customers’ hands (97,135 LTD). The title will, without a doubt, break 100K next period with its current sales trajectory. And, really, this is fantastic for the title, given that it’s a port of a year-old Wii U game that already sold about 125K in its initial run through the big board. Though the weekly inertia does seem to be in full force at this point, we should see this one reach about the same heights as the original Pokken Tournament, give or take.
Meanwhile, at the legion of doom – I mean in Hyrule, Link managed to scale his way back into the top-10. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild saw sales hold steady this period, with 6,088 copies reaching customers (610,953 LTD) and an 8th place finish. The Hylian Hero’s latest outing continues to impress in the sales department (not to mention the gameplay department), as it continues to sell at that 5500 – 7500-ish baseline. The title’s been selling consistently since its March 3, with each week inching the title closer to the million mark. At this point, I don’t expect it to crack that million-sales mark, but it should get pretty close if we add in Wii U sales (133,024 as of last charting – 743,977 Combined). 750K is still reachable, but whether it actually gets there will depend heavily on the holiday sales period.
Sadly, it looks like the world of Tokyo RPG Factory’s destined to stay lost to many. Lost Sphear (Switch) debuted at ninth place, with 5,770 units sold. The PS4 version also hit the charts at the #6 space with 7,363 copies sold. Combined, the two SKUs sold through 13,133 units. Now, I’ll give you the numbers talk now. This is bad – I Am Setsuna sold roughly 66,000 units in its opening week, which was a fairly low bar to cross to begin with. To see this one struggle to break 15,000 sales is pretty depressing overall.
Now, for the silver lining. If we look at raw numbers, The PS4 and Switch aren’t very far apart at all. But, there’s a but here, a higher percentage of Switch buyers picked this one up over the PS4 audience (0.003% Switch vs. 0.001% PS4). This is a pretty big leading indicator that, while Lost Sphear was a big miss all round, there is definitely a baked-in RPG audience on the Switch that will likely grow as the console population expands. I’m curious to see how Project Octopath Traveler performs when it hits retailers next year.
Sadly, it looks like Rowan and Liana are facing some trouble on the battlefield. Fire Emblem Warriors (Switch) plunged to the #14 space this period, with 4,016 units sold (53,531 LTD). The 3DS SKU dropped off the charts entirely. So, while this one did crack the 50K mark, that victory is bittersweet overall. I don’t expect to see this one crack 100K, given the current trajectory, and it’ll struggle to hit 75K if the bleeding doesn’t stop soon.
It looks like the double-cross is back in action in the bottom-half of the charts. Monster Hunter Double Cross (Switch) dipped to the #15 space with 3,966 units sold (155,634 LTD). As of now, the title is doing about as well as it could, given that it’s a late port that was released in the immediate build-up to the next mainline Monster Hunter game. It will likely hover in the bottom quarter of the charts for the forseeable future, with a possible 175K finish, but I don’t see it going much further than that unless a Monster Hunter World bump happens.
Somehow, in some way, the Snack World continues to bring the surprises. The Snack World: TreJarers (3DS) jumped up to 16th this time around, with 3,939 copies reaching customers (180,898 LTD). After a really shaky start, the 200K mark actually looks attainable for this one. I’m genuinely surprised, as I was writing it off just a week ago. But the bleeding seems to have slowed, and it’s finding some real life in the under-charts. I’m curious to see if it actually can reach the big 200, as this would be a huge win for Level 5.
Speaking of huge wins, Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2 (Switch) continues to hang tough in the bottom quarter of the charts. The anime-licensed fighter moved another 3,815 copies (44,239 LTD) to earn the #17 space. I do expect this one to break 50K, but I can’t say how much further it’ll go beyond that. Still, it’s an exciting title to watch given its auspicious start!
Sadly, all epics must come to an end, and this group of heroes is ready for a long rest. Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age (3DS) shifted 3,659 units this time around (1,741,582 LTD) to take 18th. While lower than normal for a handheld Dragon Quest, the game’s done spectacularly if we add in the PS4 version’s sales as well (1,337,602 PS4; 3,079,184 Total). That said, I’m still hoping that we’ll see this one crack 1.75 million before it finally retires to the under-20 realm.
Finally, somehow, in some way, Tom Nook persists. Animal Crossing: New Leaf‘s “Welcome amiibo” SKU (3DS) bounced up to 19th place with 3,496 units sold (253,665 LTD). This is a pretty happy occasion for fans of the title, as it actually cracked that quarter-million milestone. Mind you, this is a title that first hit stores in 2012, and has seen at least two other re-releases in the past. To see it continuing to sell is a testament to its quality and status as an evergreen. (Switch game when?)
On the Hardware Front
The Switch took top billing this time around, with 40,803 units sold (1,863,191 LTD). We will likely see this cross the 1.9 million mark by next sales period, and there’s little doubt that it’ll crack the two-million mark by the end of November. The 3DS, meanwhile, moved another 20,745 handhelds (23,415,932 LTD) to claim third place. Of those, 10,569 were 2DS-XL units.
The Wii U, on the other hand, just seems to be shuffling on. Nintendo’s quirky console moved 58 units this week (3,328,512 LTD).
The PlayStation family managed to claim eight spots on the big board this week, with seven PS4 games and a Vita title making the cut.
At the top of the heap, we see orcs, elves, and loot boxes paving the way. Middle-earth: Shadow of War (PS4) took the #1 spot with 20,144 units sold. This is actually up from the sales of prequel Middle Earth: Shadow of Mordor, which debuted with 14,113 sales, so, kudos to Warner on this one. That said, I do expect a pretty standard sales curve, so look for a drop of about 75-83% next period. I do expect to be pleasantly surprised by the sales for this one, and expect to see it top 25K pretty easily.
For those looking to get their RPG fix on, Tokyo RPG Factory has you covered. Lost Sphear (PS4) managed to move 7,363 units this period, which was enough to net sixth place. Combining this with the Switch version’s 5,770 sales, we’re looking at a total of 13,133 copies reaching customers overall. And, well, this is super low. While I mentioned it above, I want to emphasize how poor this opening is. I Am Setsuna managed to break 33,629 sales in its opening week on just the PS4. To see its successor struggle to reach a third of that on multiple platforms is just plain harsh. Expect this one to drop out of the charts with the quickness.
Meanwhile, folks are gathering on the pitch for a heated footie match. FIFA 18 (PS4) kicked another goal at the #7 space, wioth 6,703 copies reaching customers (75,791 LTD). Competing title Winning Eleven 2018 (PS4) also charted at 12th, with 4,307 units sold (102,018 LTD). The sales for both titles continue to be fairly normal at this point, so expect the usual chart progression for both titles. FIFA did break the 75K as expected, and 100K is still in play at this point.
Even the VR fans have a victory to claim this period, which is pretty awesome. No Heroes Allowed! VR (PS4|PSVR) opened at the #10 spot, with 5,462 units sold. Honestly, I’m not 100% sure on what the over/under for this one is – it’s a quirky VR spinoff from Holy Invasion of Privacy, Badman! What Did I Do to Deserve This?, and it’s one of the few VR titles to actually crack the top-10, so I’m going to call this one a win overall. I do expect a fairly rapid run through the charts, but it should crack 10K if all goes well.
Meanwhile, the cold steel looks to be getting a bit colder this week. The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel III (PS4) dropped to the #11 space, shifting just 5,457 for the week (105,298 LTD). That said, the game did crack the 100K milestone this time around, which is a cause for some celebration. Still, while sales are still in line with the Vita sales for Trails of Cold Steel II, it’s a pretty big deficit from its predecessor’s multi-platform sales of over 150K. The RPG sales progression is in full effect, and these dips are expected. Still, I do wonder if we’ll see Falcom making moves to try to stop the user bleed for their next title.
Meanwhile, the sniper is silent, deadly, and pretty lonely in the under-charts. Sniper: Ghost Warrior 3 (PS4) dipped to the #13 space this period, with 4,093 units sold (14,919 LTD). The week-2 drop of 62% is pretty great to see, but I don’t expect any miracles from the title.
At the bottom of the charts, the visual novel thrives… kind of! Yoshiwara Higanbana Kuon no Chigiri debuted at the #20 spot with 3,396 units sold.
On the Hardware Front
The PS4 took a hard-fought second place this period, with 22,706 units sold (5,429,433 LTD). Of those, 5,773 were PS4 Pro consoles. Get your champagne ready, because the PS4 should crack the 5.5 million mark by the early November at its current pace. The Vita, meanwhile, took a distant fourth, moving just 3,938 handhelds (5,719,130 LTD).
The PS3, on the other hand, continues its walk down that dusty trail. The retired system shifted 65 units this time around (10,469,449 LTD).
In the military world, the SR-71 “Blackbird” is a strategic recon aircraft that was operated by the US Air Force from 1966 to 1999. Lockheed Martin designed the craft, which was capable of reaching supersonic speeds up to Mach-3. 32 Blackbirds were built and used through the craft’s lifetime, with 12 being lost to various accidents.
With 71 XBox One consoles sold this week, I’m sure that at least one poor Microsoft employee is looking to jet into the sunset at top speed.