Media Create Analyses

Media Create (Japan) Game Sales Analysis: 2017 Week 29 (07/17/2017 – 07/23/2017)


Happy Sunday everyone, and welcome to another week of Media Create sales. This week, though, all that can be said is release the kraken! Splatoon 2 hit stores last week with a Switch hardware refresh, and will certainly become the point of discussion for the period. We’re looking at a highly anticipated sequel to one of the Wii U’s biggest system sellers, so expect some fireworks!

Nintendo

This was a banner week for the big N as titles on the Switch and 3DS captured fourteen spots on the big board. The two consoles managed to claim seven spaces, each.

At the top of the charts, kids, squids, and squid-kids are making their way to the latest Turf War (or earning their keep in Salmon Run!). Splatoon 2 (Switch) squid-jumped to first place this period, with 648,085 units sold. Before you ask, yes, figures like these are off the freaking hook. In its first week, Splatoon sold more than the lifetime sales of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (543,016) and Mario Kart 8 (588,028), and sits at a 54.14% attach rate.

In its début week, Splatoon 2 saw more than one copy going out for every two Switch consoles in the wild. In short, this is freaking ink-redible (Yes, I needed the pun. Go away.). It becomes even more impressive when you consider that Splatoon 2 outsold its predecessor by 447.52% (Splatoon 1 debuted with 144,818 units sold). At this point, I’m fully expecting a million sales by Christmas, though when that milestone is reached depends on when Nintendo can finally overcome its stock shortages.

On the 3DS, fans got a chance to return to the mystery-filled world of Professor Layton…’s kid. Layton’s Mystery Journey: Katrielle and the Millionaire’s Conspiracy (3DS) took an easy second place this period, with 70,867 copies reaching customers. While this a strong start for the title, it’s far below the typical opening numbers for the franchise. For example, Professor Layton and the Legacy of Civilization A (2013) opened with 130,686 sales. There are a few potential reasons for this decline, though, the most notable being the game’s (less expensive) release on smartphones on the same day. So, for now, these are decent numbers, with a firm “but” attached.

That said, it looks like fans are still saying “Hey!” to Captain Olimar as he embarks on his second week. Hey! Pikmin (3DS) moved another 21,628 copies this time around (87,494 LTD) to take third place. The title is showing a lower-than-expected drop, shedding just 67% week-over-week, which could be an encouraging sign. Currently, Hey! Pikmin is on track to break 100K, possibly 125K. Beyond that, though, it depends highly on how the game performs in the lower half of the big board.

This week, fans welcomed the adorably weird with Sumikko Gurashi: Koko, Dokonan Desu? (3DS). The latest adaptation of San-X’s cute-yet-offbeat franchise moved 20,883 units to take fourth place. This is actually about on par with last year’s Sumikko Gurashi: Mura o Tsukurundesu, which debuted at third with 20,616. As of now, that means things are, well, generally flat. While it didn’t decline, it also didn’t grow the brand any. So, I’m curious to see how things turn out in the coming weeks.

Deeper into the charts, we can see that the races on the chilly peaks of Mount Wario are heating up again. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Switch) saw a 12% sales jump this period, with 12,980 copies reaching customers (588,028 LTD). We should see the game crack the 600K mark within the next two weeks at its current pace. As of now, we’re looking a roughly 49.13% attach rate, meaning that roughly one copy has sold for every two Switch consoles on the market. It’s a drop from last week’s attach rate, but we also saw a massive infusion of hardware into the market. Regardless, I expect to see this remain a strong seller through the year, and I still anticipate that big million-sales mark before the title ultimately exits the top 20. As of now, I’m still pegging it at a mil by the end of the year, but this figure is heavily dependent on supply and holiday bundling.

Unfortunately, the Grail War seems a bit, well, smaller than one would expect. Fate/Extella: The Umbral Star (Switch) also launched this period. Against Splatoon 2. Let that sink in for a moment.

Anyway, the title managed to move 10,247 copies in its inaugural week to take the #7 space. And, really, this isn’t awful. Considering that this is a port of a six-month-old PS4 and Vita game, the title managed to move 40-60% of its initial shipment. Are these good numbers? Hell no. But it’s not awful, all the same. There’s a silver lining in the fact that this SKU had a similar attach rate to the Vita version of the game at launch (.08% vs. 1%), coupled with the fact that Fate/Extella is a port of an old game that was likely helped by the hardware bump this period. I’m more curious to see retention at this point, and whether we’ll see it hang tight for a few weeks, or sink like a stone.

Speaking of hanging tight, ARMS (Switch) continues to cling to the top-10 with a fierce tenacity. Nintendo’s game about punchy puglilists moved another 7,984 copies (177,987 LTD) to knock out 8th place. The title officially broke 175K this period, which is incredibly encouraging, and it looks like we’ll see it reach 200K by the end of August. That said, I’m still a bit skeptical of whether it can crack the quarter-million mark, so I’m going to wait and see on that prediction.

For those looking for a more grand adventure, Hyrule still awaits with open arms (and plenty of rain). The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Switch) managed to cling to 10th place this time around, with 5,989 copies reaching customers (543,016 LTD). The title is on track to crack 550K by the end of July, and we should see it shatter Twilight Princess‘s (Wii) lifetime sales numbers of 554,109 by next month. As of today, the game enjoys a 45.37% attach rate. Considering that previous recent entries have struggled, this is a fantastic turnaround for the Hylian Hero.

While Hyrule may be the new hotness (er, again), the islands of Alola continue to enchant newcomers of all ages. Pokémon Sun & Moon (3DS) captured 11th place this period, with 5,276 units sold (3,295,102 LTD). The title saw another 7% sales bump this period, which is incredibly encouraging overall. I’m still expecting a small bump when Pokken Tournament Deluxe hits in September, though I do expect some drop-off when Ultra Sun and Ultra Moon hit stores.

Sadly, this oasis was never meant to be. Ever Oasis (3DS) limped down to 13th this period, with 4,511 units sold (18,835 LTD). Though the 69% decline does buck the typical JRPG sales curve, I don’t see this one rising too far above 30K before it ends up in the bomba bins.

It looks like fans may finally be tiring of the double cross as well… for the moment. Monster Hunter Double Cross (3DS) managed to move 3,354 units this time around (1,546,392 LTD) to take 14th place. This slowdown was expected, truth be told, as the game’s Switch SKU hits stores on August 25. I’m expecting a quick slowdown, which will be punctuated by a strong overall opener for the Switch version. Still, 1.5 million units sold is nothing to sneeze at, given this is seen as a “poorly performing” entry in the franchise.

One other new Switch game made its entry this period, and it’s a doozy! Well, not really. Cars 3: Driven to Win (Switch) crashed into 16th this period, with 3,220 units sold. Not sure what to say here, besides “20-40% sell-through is pathetic.” Expect this one to vanish into the land of the bomba bins very quickly.

Somehow, Tom Nook is still maintaining a strong business in the lower half of the charts. Animal Crossing: New Leaf‘s “Welcome amiibo” SKU (3DS) moved another 3,201 copies (205,098 LTD) to take 17th place. Funny enough, sales remained 100% flat this period, with a less-than 1% variance over last week. And really, I can’t help but feel a bit impressed when I see this five-year-old game clinging to the charts today. Here’s hoping the inevitable Switch entry has the same longevity!

At the bottom of the charts, a familiar face makes its return. 1-2-Switch (Switch) jumped back to 20th place with 2,636 copies reaching customers (233,737 LTD). While not quite at a quarter million, the title has had a good run overall. This is especially true, given the game’s spotty reputation in both the press and word-of-mouth. I’m curious to see if Nintendo will follow up on the game and, if they do, how they’ll do it.

On the Hardware Front

The Switch is back, baby! A bunch of hardware was stuffed into the channels for the big Splatoon launch, which means that we saw a roughly 300% increase in sales for Nintendo’s hybrid console week-over-week. The console moved 98,999 units this time around (1,196,986 LTD) to take the top spot. The 3DS family took sold just over a third of its younger sibling, with 34,145 units sold (22,954,551 LTD) and a second-place finish. The Wii U, meanwhile, continues to hold somewhat steady, with 176 units reaching customers’ hands.

Sony

This time around, the PlayStation family managed to capture six spots on the big board, with four PlayStation 4 games and a Vita title making the cut.

At the front of the pack, the Zodiac Age continues to reign. Final Fantasy XII: The Zodiac Age (PS4) dipped down to fifth place this period, with 19,049 units sold (119,813 LTD). And, truth be told, this falls well within expected norms. The 81% drop, while on the higher end, falls well within that 75-85% decline we normally see in RPGs. Expect to have a typical sales curve, with sales likely surpassing 125K within the next two weeks.

Meanwhile, it looks like Gundam continues to fight on in the upper charts. Gundam Versus (PS4) dropped down to 9th place this period, with 6,665 copies reaching customers (143,844 LTD). Much like I said last week, the title is going through a super steep decline curve. I’m still confident that the title will break 150K, but we’re still looking at a very short and painful life as it plummets through the big board.

Just outside the top-10, fighting fans got a little dose of that ArcSys Magic. Under Night In-Birth Exe:Latest (PS4), the latest release of the 2012 classic fighter, debuted at 12th place with 5,013 units sold. While low, I can’t say this is an awful performance, as we’re looking at a physical release of a two-year-old expansion of a five-year-old game. The title sold through 60-80% of its allotment, so we’re looking at a game that generally sold within retailer expectations.

And then there’s Minecraft (Vita). Yes, the Vita’s juggernaut, the highest-selling title on the platform that’s on and off the charts for over two years now, held on to 15th place this period with 3,331 units sold (1,180,284 LTD). We’re within spitting distance of the 1.2 million mark, with a good chance that we’ll see it cross that milestone. Here’s hoping that Mojang’s blocky sandbox has enough materials to hold on until then.

Of course, if a world isn’t your thing, how about a visual about an election? Not a local election or a country election, but a world election? Visual novel World Eleven made its début on the Vita this week. The title managed to claim 18th place this period, with 3,017 copies reaching customers. Though the numbers are low, this is a visual novel that launched in February 2016 on PC. The title sold through 60-80% of its initial allotment, and I have little reason to fear that it’s at least stable, if not decent for the title.

Finally, folks continue to take that dusty road to San Andreas. Grand Theft Auto V‘s (PS4) budget re-release hijacked 19th this period, with 2,792 units sold (366,844 LTD).

On the Hardware Front

The PlayStation 4 managed ot take a hard-fought third place this period, with 30,878 units sold (5,002,366 LTD). Of those, 7,037 were PS4 Pro consoles. This week is one for celebration for PS4 fans. The console finally crossed the five million sales milestone, which is no small feat. After a nail-biter of a début, it’s great to see Sony’s black box stand as a confident juggernaut in the greater market. Here’s to another five million!

The Vita, meanwhile, held steady with 4,545 handhelds reaching customers (5,668,825 LTD). The PS3 just continued along its own path, moving another 142 consoles this week.

Microsoft

In the world of music, 77 is the title of The Talking Heads’ debut album. The record, which was released by Sire Records in the UK and US and Philips Records across continental Europe, quickly found a following with its like Psycho Killer, Uh-Oh, Love Comes to Town, and Pulled Up.

In the world of Japanese console sales, 77 XBox One consoles sold likely has more than a few Microsoft employees hoping that someone puts the console out of its misery, “psycho killer” style (Qu’est-ce que c’est ?).

[Full Charts at 4Gamer]
[Discussion at NeoGAF]

About the author

Samantha Ferreira

Samantha Ferreira is Anime Herald’s founder and editor-in-chief. A Rhode Island native, Samantha has been an anime fan since 1992, and an active member of the anime press since 2002, when she began working as a reviewer for Anime Dream. She launched Anime Herald in 2010, and continues to oversee its operations to this day. Outside of journalism, Samantha actively studies the history of the North American anime fandom and industry, with a particular focus on the 2000s anime boom and bust. She’s a huge fan of all things Sakura Wars, and maintains series fansite Combat Revue Review when she has free time available. When not in the Anime Herald Discord, Samantha can typically be found on Bluesky.

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